It's a numbers game

Quick, which is more fun?

An IRS audit?

Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Figuring out what the ESPN numbers and stars next to a recruit's name mean?

Michigan and Iowa have a pair of recruits with an ESPN Grade of 79. Cool, right?

Both of the Michigan recruits graded at 79 have 4 stars next to their name. Iowa's recruits? Hamilton is a 4 star and Blythe is a 3 star!

So how does ESPN explain the discrepancy? Simple, they freely admit it is a conspiracy.
Well, that and some asinine system where Iowa's 79 grading is REALLY 79.49, while Michigan's recruits are 79.5, which earns them their 4th star.

So what does this all mean? It means exactly what you think it does: Michigan's NAME is worth .01 in the grand scheme of things. Which in the college football universe earns you 4 freakin stars!

I SUCK

at predictions!

The ugly: Ray Hamilton? I actually was going to put him on my list. Really, ask my wife! Actually, if you look at my list you see my listing of Austin Powers Jr. That was my "code name" for Ray Hamilton. An interesting side note: Hamilton is a WVU legacy, which ties into an earlier post where I said KF likes to target other schools' legacies.

The bad: John Raymon. Okay nobody had him on their list. But I did list an African-American defensive lineman from PA. So technically the only thing I got wrong WAS HIS NAME! It's not like that is a big deal or anything. BTW, West Virginia has to be asking themselves what they did to piss Kirk off after another Iowa theft. ;)

The good: I'm gonna predict who the mystery 3rd verbal is. Drum roll please. (crosses fingers) Torrey Campbell!

The great: I'm gonna take credit for the recent flurry of verbals. Without my recent lame attempt at predictions, fate wouldn't have felt it necessary to deliver me a beat-down.

Taking a stab at the Class of 2011

Those we know:

**** Scout/ESPN - OH - Ray Hamilton
**** Rivals - IA - Austin Blythe
**** Scout/Rivals - IL - Jordan Walsh
*** Rivals - WI - Melvin Gordon
*** Scout - FL - Torrey Campbell
*** Scout - PA - John Raymon
*** Scout - IL - Riley McMinn
*** Scout - MI - Jake Duzey
*** ESPN - FL - Jacob Rudock
*** ESPN - IA - Henry K-C (I refuse to butcher the kids name)
*** ESPN - MA - Marcus Grant
*** Rivals - NE - Cole Fisher
*** Rivals - MA - Mike Orloff
** ESPN - TX - Austin Vincent
UK - Austin Powers III (He's a silent commit, trust me)
*** ESPN - TX - JaCorey Shepherd (demoted himself - he's still going to be a Hawk, just put a "JAY" in front of it and "TANKJOB" behind it)



Now for the speculation. (Confidence level: 1 = Throwing darts 10 = He's a blood relative)

FL - Jacob Rudock (3) (Yes!)
FL - Torrey Campbell (7) (Finally! Finally!! FINALLY!!!)
MO - Darrian Miller (5)
CA - Chance Early (5)
IA - Quenton James (5)
IL - McAvoy Twins (4) (Minnesota - apparently the IA coaches weren't high on this duo. My bad.)
IN - Nick Martin (5) (Kentucky - WTF?)
IL - Devin Henderson (Juco) (2)
OH - Chase Hounshell (6) (Florida - again, didn't see that coming)
IA - Christian French (7)
PA - Quinton Jefferson (4)
WI - Jordan Fredrick (6) (Dammit. Hard to get kids out of Wisconsin)
MO - Jason Meehan (5)
MO - Cortland Dunlap (5)
MD - Darius Jennings (5)
MI - Ashton Gaines (7)

IA - Derrick Loveless (4) Gray Shirt

Here are the ACTUAL verbals:
MELVIN SPEARS: Anyone who doesn't like the name Melvin can leave the Hawkeye fanbase right now!
MELVIN GORDON: Why didn't I put him on the list? 1) Reverse psychology. I wanted him bad, so I figured I would leave him off. 2) I'm an idiot.
JORDAN WALSH: Our third 4 star!!!
TORREY CAMPBELL: After whiffing on 5 in a row I get my second prediction! I'm a frickin genius.
COLE FISHER: While Kirk sometimes misses on Iowa legacies (Bobek), he sure has done a nice job of stealing legacies from other programs (yes I know Neb. didn't offer, and how much did you pay to read this?)
MIKE ORLOFF: The parade of under-the-radar recruits continues. Kinda happy he's a team-mate of Grant. Hopefully that's a sign Grant ain't gonna pull a Shepherd.
RILEY McMINN: Since giving his verbal, his Scout rating has changed twice. From unrated DE to 77th best DE to 55th! That's Iowa Juice at work. :-)
JAKE DUZEY: Another Duzey of a surprise (you knew that was coming). The out-of-state train keeps on rolling and KF keeps proving he knows how to find and deliver talent. BB must be upset, that makes 9 recruits the padawan has failed to steal. 8)
RAY HAMILTON: I was sooo close to putting him on the list. I just figured with Henry K-C and French on the horizon that Hamilton would go elsewhere. I am sooo glad to be wrong.
JOHN RAYMON: I don't feel as bad with this one. J.R. redefines the phrase "under the radar". Heck, I don't think he was in any of the popular databases before he verballed. Kirk played this one perfectly. My list DID include a defensive lineman from PA. I just picked the wrong one. Dangit.
JACOB RUDOCK: Glass half empty: Only got 1 or 3 correct. Glass half full: It was less than 24 hours before one of my guesses panned out.

Harkin and Grassley: Senility isn't pretty, is it.

Thank goodness America and the world are in perfect shape, thus freeing up time for Grassley and Harkin to worry about what's really troubling the USA: Colleges making MONEY!

Off America's coast the biggest man-made eco-disaster in history? No problem.

World wide economic decline? No sweat.

Global temperatures rising to dangerous levels? (sing-a-long) Don't worry, be happy.


Hey Tom and Chuck, weren't you guys in office 20 years ago when Penn State joined the league? Where was your panic button back then?

Colleges are big business? What was your first clue Senators? College stadiums that sat more people than NFL stadiums? 500 million $$$ annually in gov't grants? Coaches getting paid more than Rock Stars?

Colleges are part of the public sector, and business is booming in the public sector. That would explain why public sector employees make 37$/hour versus 25$/hour for private sector employees when you factor in all the benefits. Senators Grassley and Harkin should know a thing or two about the public sector being a FOR PROFIT entity. I mean it is not a coincidence those 2 men have spent the majority of their adult life on the public dime. And they've done very well for themselves watching the U.S. economy ride a roller coaster for 4 decades. I think the roller coaster they've been on has gone up and up, with no apologies to the taxpayers while they have taken their luxurious ride.

BTW, here are some snippets from the life of a tax exempt organization.

From 1992: The NY Times exposes who really benefits from United Way's charity.

From 2008: United Way can't seem to learn the simplest of lessons


Senators, maybe we the college fans should investigate all the TAX-FREE perks you guys get. What do you say?

Are we done with WR recruiting?

Yes . . . and no.

I'm not convinced that Vincent/Shepherd/Grant will all end up at WR.

What about?

Darius Jennings?

Chance Early?

Nicholas Law?

Rodney Mills?

Torrey Campbell?

Valdez Showers?

Quenton James?

Quentin Gardener?

Cam McDaniel?

Darian Cotton?

Ashton Gaines?

DeAnthony Arnett?

Dondi Kirby?

Josh Grady?

Some of those players are among the forgotten IMO. More bluntly, either they are showing very little interest in Iowa, or Iowa is showing very little interest in them, or both. Kirk has a habit of taking athletes who project to more than one position. This philosophy has served him well. These kinds of recruits give the coaches the flexibility they need to deal with "lack-of-depth" issues that arise for various reasons.

Iowa may take only 3 WR's this year, but we'll certainly take more skill-position players capable of playing WR/DB or in some cases WR/DB/RB (Josh Brown being an example of the latter). So if a blue-chip (by KF's standard) WR wants to come to Iowa, I believe there is still a scholarship available should that "problem" present itself.

KF's paradoxical recruiting legacy?

Darian Cotton to the Cyclones

Brian Bobek to Ohio State

Jud Wienke to ?

Chance Early to ?

Cole Fisher to ?

Jake Quast to ?

Derrick Loveless to ?

Jack Verducci to ?

Ted Karras to ?

Patrick Flavin to ?


Look at the above Iowa legacies. But wait, Fisher is a Nebraska legacy! He is also the only recruit from above with a scholarship offer from Iowa. You can argue that Quast has injury problems, but so does Fisher. So does any of this mean anything? Thru-out Kirk's tenure at Iowa he has pursued other school's legacies when he felt he had a chance with them. He has also been shy about offering Iowa legacies. This has not been an iron-clad policy, as he has offered a select few Iowa legacies, most notably his own sons. But he is a gambler when it comes to Iowa legacies and local boys. Each year he gets kids like Blake Haluska and Wyatt Suess to walk-on. These walk-ons are often good enough to earn a scholarship; witness Brett Greenwood, who I suspect the coaches knew had more than just "walk-on" talent.

I think Kirk does this more out of necessity than desire. Iowa gets 85 scholarships just like Florida and Ohio State, but wonder if Iowa could get 90 or 95 scholarship players each year? Reese Morgan may be key here. He does a good job identifying which kids are "must get" local recruits. Then he and Kirk go to work convincing talented kids with natural affection for Iowa to walk-on and earn a place in Hawkeye History. This tactic doesn't always work. They whispered in the ear of Nile Kinnick Knapp and Hayden Hawk, but those kids were from other states and chose to follow their own path. Cole Wegher didn't even get a whisper.

So is it wise to take a pass on legacies in the hope they will do their "duty" and walk-on? Yes, but it brings up a sticky question: If the goal is to maximize the number of "scholarship-level" players in an effort to give Iowa a competitive advantage, then wouldn't it make sense to bring Brian and James Ferentz into the program as walk-ons, thus giving Iowa 87 scholarship players instead of 85? You can fairly argue that other coaches like Greg McDermott don't do that, even going as far as taking his son (Doug) to Creighton with him. And you can also argue that Chris Farley (Mark's son) didn't even display the loyalty to his father that the Ferentz boys gave to theirs. In the end, Kirk's loyalty to family trumped his loyalty to school, which isn't a bad thing. But would the debate over Kirk's salary been as acrimonious if he had paid for his son's educations? Kirk could've argued that his family was showing their appreciation for Iowa's generosity and simultaneously bestowing a scholarship on a deserving lower-class recruit. A win/win situation. And when you factor in the added depth such a move would create, you could say it was a WIN/WIN/WIN situation!

In the end I can only speculate what a decision like the aforementioned would've done for the University and Ferentz-family public relations. It's reasonable to assume the local media and Senator Tom Harkin would've never grabbed their bull-horn regarding Brian and his subsidized housing. At least if they had, Kirk had a ready-made rebuttal with his scholarship-caliber son behaving altruistically in regards to his choice of school and football program.

I'll end with another speculation: If Iowa offers Darian Cotton, I could see him being a Hawkeye.

Big 2? Big 3? Big 4? Oh that is soooo last century.

The college football landscape (along with a great many things) was reset at midnight 2000 A.D. From that time till now take a look at Notre Dame, Penn State, Washington, Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Michigan, even Florida State decided to retire a legend for fear of a slide into mediocrity.

In the Big Ten it's the Big 2 and the little 10. Uh, no.

Wait, it's the Big 3 and the little 9. I don't think so.

Nebraska is here and now it is the Big 4 and the little 8. Oh, lord, such little minds with so much time.

JIM, I'm a bricklayer, not a doctor, so I won't insult you Mr. Delaney by pretending to know more than you. But . . . The BALANCE you seek is IN the geography. I know you are bothered by the problem that PSU/OSU/Mich pose, but believe it or not, perception IS NOT REALITY, despite what everyone says.

Michigan: Great past. Lousy present. Good future. Even if they rebound and go to a bowl game, they are what Nebraska has become: A legendary program who fell from grace. The 20th century was good to Detroit and Michigan because of the auto industry. Guess what, the future's so hazy you ain't gotta wear shades.

OSU: Great past. Great present. Great future. They are elite and will remain so with Tress at the helm. Jim, I have an ACT question for you:

Texas is to the Big 12

as

Ohio State is to the ___ ___ ?

Do you see the probem? A single elite team unbalances whichever division you put them in. Which brings us to . . .

Penn State: In the last decade they have had 4 losing seasons. That's more than Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. And none of those teams are elite. Everyone says PSU is elite because of their past. That's like saying Lauren Bacall is a 10 because of her past. Yes, Penn State has rebounded very well as of late, but last year they faced 2 tough tests during their season and failed them both. Now they did earn some redemption in their bowl game, but PSU and Nebraska live on the same football plateau.

Iowa: Last year they beat PSU, Wisky, Michigan and took OSU to overtime. Enjoyed their second BCS bowl game in a decade and are 1 and 1 as a result. A pair of conference titles; Longest bowl winning streak in the conference and the 2nd best coach in the league. (whiny voice) But Iowa doesn't have PSU or Michigan's cache! Really? Didn't they leap-frog Michigan in 05 for a bowl game? Didn't they do the same thing to Penn State last year? Well why would an ugly little girl from the wrong side of the tracks get an invitation to a better bowl than the previously mentioned lookers? BECAUSE IT AIN'T 1975, THAT'S WHY! Iowa has at least as good a future as Michigan.

Wisconsin: Mirror image of Iowa with a younger coach who views the Badgers as a "destination" job. Future is bright.

Nebraska: The jury is still out on Pelini. If he's as good as he thinks he is, the Huskers have a keeper and the West division has it's own version of Ohio State. Time will tell.

Big 4? In terms of name-recognition, I'd say yes. But that's where it ends.
Are Penn State/Nebraska/Michigan historically better than Iowa or Wisconsin? Yes, but this new century has been humbling for all three and signals a change in direction that results in a conference that is deeper and harder to dominate. The following teams have won a conference title in the first decade of the new century: Illinois; Purdue; Iowa; Michigan; Northwestern; Ohio State. That's half the conference, and teams like Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska are all poised to join that group in the near future. It's been 40 years since 2 teams owned the B-10. Wisconsin and Northwestern have as many conference titles as PSU since they joined the B-10. Illinois has as many conference crowns as PSU in the most recent decade.

So what am I saying about PSU/OSU and Michigan? All 3 have the reputation of Bruce Lee. Only 1 of them will live up to that reputation in the coming decades!

Jim, here's how you define balance: The EAST gets the conferences single ELITE team. The WEST gets better coaching depth. When you put those things on a scale, they BALANCE out.

Marriage - Football Style - Sexy versus Substance

Verbal = Engagement
Letter of Intent = Marriage
Red-shirt year = Honeymoon


For those high school kids currently trying to figure out which "sexy" program they want to get engaged to, don't forget to examine what happened to the players who fell for the plastic-surgery prima donna. Iowa is a respectable girl who doesn't "put-out" on the first date. For some guys this is a turn-off. Those guys want a flashy girl who will make their buddies envious. When you get married to Iowa you get a girl who will cook you a steak instead of serve you empty-calorie sizzle.


The following is a list of cautionary tales (with varying degrees of interest in Iowa while in high school) that prospective recruits would do well to remember when valuing sexiness over substance.


05 Ryan Bain (IL) - Iowa to the Akron Zips to 2nd string Zip as a senior.
05 Evan Sharpley (MI) - To Notre Dame where he got to watch the head coach who recruited him (Willingham) get fired, then he got to watch the head coach who succeeded him (Weis) get fired. Never cracking the starting line-up along his magical mystery tour. Pretty sharp choice.
06 Isiah Williams (IL) - Illinois missed a bowl game with a losing record 3 of the 4 years he attended.  Typical Zook 4-star recruit who didn't make it to the NFL.  BTW, fellow 2006 recruit (2-star scout) Ricky Stanzi did make it to the NFL.
06 Elijah Hodge (FL) - Wisconsin to Northern Iowa to undrafted (unlike his bro, who was drafted out of Iowa).
06 Matt Carufel (MN) - Notre Dame to Minnesota and a lame duck coach (starter).
06 Munir Prince (MO) - Notre Dame to Missouri (you know, the girl no one wants to steal) to 3rd string as a senior.
06 Lance Tillison (FL) - Iowa to Obscurity to Iowa.
07 Dale Martin (IL) - Louisville to Akron Zips (say Hi to Ryan Bain for us).
07 Diauntae Morrow (OH) - Iowa to Toledo Rockets. (Rocketing to an NFL stadium, as a first string security guard)
07 Jacody Coleman (TX) - Iowa to Lamar (Texas school that just started playing football).
07 Brian Smith (MO) - To Notre Dame and a front row seat to watch his coach get fired (starter).
08 Jacob Charest (NC) - Illinois then transferred to Oblivion after losing out to Scheelhaase.
08 Russell Ellington (IL) - He's a starter. But will he be when the new coach arrives next year?
08 Cordale Scott (OH) - Illinois to Toledo Rockets (say Hi to Morrow for us).
08 Jason Ford (IL) - Illinois (committed in Feb 08 after Zook promised him more Rose Bowls).
08/10 Hoch Brothers (IA) - Missouri, the girl the B-10 DIDN'T want (starter).
09 Nathan Scheelhaase (MO) - Illinois for a front row seat to watch the end of Zook's career.
09 David Barrent (IA) - Michigan State (best thing about his choice, is that come December his team only has to drive 23 miles to their Bowl game).
2010 Seantrel Henderson (MN) - You know you're a genius when you tell the media you waited till March 23rd to fax in your LOI because you wanted to make sure your future school had no surprises in store. Ooops! The good news is Lane Kiffin is just like Pete Carroll (without the wins). EDIT: Red Alert! Seantrel is NOW going to Miami. From the frying pan into the fire.


;-)

The OMEN

It was a nice 70's movie with Gregory Peck. But maybe, deja vu events in Hawkeyeland are an Omen of something that's on the horizon.

Now I’m not saying I know what will happen in Feb. 2011, but some happy thoughts popped into my head and I thought I would share them.

Early (very) in 2004 Iowa got some nice pub with a quality bowl victory. A few months later some more nice pub with a quality NFL draft containing a fair share of Hawks, including a Hawkeye taken early (very) in day 1. The following fall Iowa was impressive and sent itself to a nice bowl where it impressed again. While all this was going on some rival coaches were on the hot seat and recruits had to factor that into their plans. Next came Feb 2005, and Iowa had (on paper) its best recruiting class under KF.

Okay, now . . . Iowa is coming off it's first BCS bowl win ever. I think it is fair to say Iowa represented well in the most recent NFL draft with a record-setting 6 players chosen, including a kid taken early (very) in day 1. During the upcoming season some rival coaches are already on the hot seat (minn/ill/mich/) and others will likely alter the recruiting landscape by retiring or jumping to another program. The Hawks seem confidant and deep enough to make another attention-grabbing fall run. Iowa is targeting some impressive talent and come Feb. 2011 everything may fall into place just as it did in 2005, and KF might come up with a class that is classified as TOP 10, once again.

Guess which of Kirk's recruiting classes was the best?

2005? Well it was ranked the highest, and its remaining members exited with a BCS Bowl victory, the first in Iowa's history (unless you count the Rose Bowl games before the BCS was invented). It produced a couple All-Americans, a few All-Conference players and even a Doak Walker award winner. So you could make an argument that 2005 class was the best . . . on paper.


Or you could vote for the 2001 class. The class that went to 5 straight bowl games and beat Florida, LSU and Texas Tech in 3 of them. That class also produced All-Americans and All Conference players. And though it wasn't ranked top 10 like the 05 class, it finished in the top 10 three times, something no class has been able to do since the 50's.


2001 or 2005? Neither. First off, it's not how the class is ranked when they are still high school seniors that determines the winner, it's what they do once they arrive on campus. Now this is all very subjective, but here is my case.


Let's look at attrition. And by the way, in the category of "life isn't fair", it doesn't matter how the attrition occurs, just that it happened.


2005 class attrition: Twelve. Four of those possessed a 4-star ranking. Ouch!
2007 class attrition: (so far) Six, and that doesn't include Jordan Bernstine who may want out before he is kicked out. But the good news for him is, he won't be regarded as the biggest trouble-maker of that class.
2008 class attrition: (so far) Nine. You heard me right, NINE! What's especially troubling is that was the only class of the 21st century that didn't have a 4 or 5 star player in it. And if Jewel Hampton never makes it out of the doghouse, that class will be famous for producing 2 running backs who became legends for what they DIDN'T accomplish.
2009: (so far) Five! That number does not bode well for the future. Extrapolate using simple math and the entire class will be GONE before the end of their fourth year! I doubt that happens, but you see the problem they are building toward.


So, my favorite class? 2006. Scout ranked them 40th, while Rivals had them at 39. Rankings that are fairly typical for Iowa classes.
Attrition: 6 players, and one of them is Cleveland, who has proven he had the tools to become a star had he stayed out of trouble.


The 2006 class wasn't top-heavy with 4/5-star players (none were 5 stars), garnering six less than the 2005 class. But those who pledged Iowa, all stayed and contributed, an extreme rarity for any college team during any era. If the attrition rate holds until January 2011, the 2006 class will have done better in that category than any of Kirk's classes. But what impresses me the most, is the fact that they crawled thru Hell to get to Heaven. The 06/07 years were the darkest of the Kirk Ferentz era for reasons having little to do with wins and losses, tho that part of the equation was also a major underachievement. But after surgically removing much of the cancer, Iowa rebounded spectacularly in 08/09. At one point in 2009 Iowa had the third longest winning streak in major college football. Iowa currently has the longest winning bowl streak in the Big 10. Admittedly the number isn't large, but it is still better than Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan.


The best part of the story of the 2006 class has yet to be written. But they have a real chance at a conference title in the fall, and an outside chance at a national title. If any individual represents that 2006 class, it is Ricky Stanzi. For he, as an individual, and the class as a whole, have something in common: both were vastly under-estimated.

CENTER of controversy

I liked our recruiting last year and we are off to a good start this year. One thing has me scratching my head. Why no interest in Brian Bobek? He reminds me of another Brian, and like that recruit he has close ties to the Hawkeyes.

Iowa doesn't target a lot of centers. Brian Ferentz in 2001; Eubanks in 2005; James Ferentz in 2008; Bobek in 2011? It would seem to make sense looking at the class spacing.

Trying to explain Bobek's omission leads me to wonder if Austin Blythe and Jordan Walsh are slated for center? Whatever the reason, only the Iowa coaches know what it is. I just hope Bobek doesn't become a cog that helps continue the lop-sided rivalry between the Hawkeyes and the Buckeyes. Time will tell.

Dear Nebraska, welcome to the Big Time Conference

OMG

That welcome didn't last long, did it. Okay the luv fest from 10 members continues, but the Hawkeyes are quickly doing what I expected from the start: carrying the banner of hate for Nebraska. Can you say, "Instant rivalry," complete with Trophy and fan misbehavior. This will actually be very entertaining to read and watch over the next few centuries.

Huskers and Hawkeyes have one powerful thing in common, their relentlessness is matched by their viciousness. Like the Klingons, neither fan-base takes prisoners. And one HAWKEYE is REPORTedly driving the blood-thirsty rivalry about to be unleashed on the college landscape. Hope you enjoyed the honeymoon Nebraska, all 24 hours of it.

There is speculation on who will get a protected rivalry with Nebraska. Worry no more Hawks, it won't be Wisky. Nor will it be PSU, OSU, Michigan or any team that doesn't rhyme with cawksize. And when I say "protected rivalry", I am referring to how the Network will position and market the game. At the end of the regular season you will see Mich/OSU in the EAST and Iowa/Nebraska in the WEST facing off against each other.

You can thank me for settling this debate by sending money to my Swiss bank account.

Time to settle the "Divisional" debate.

Oh My God.


We're going to have 2 divisions AND balance! Yay! Well I've got some news for you, here is how it is going to look:


West:
Wisky
Minn
Iowa
Neb
Illini
Nwst


East:
PSU
OSU
Mich
MSU
Indy
PU




You want balance? If the above setup were in place during the most recent season, the WEST would have 5 bowl teams with 3 bowl victors. The "stronger" EAST would have 3 bowl teams with 2 bowl victors. Delaney will balance the past with the future when choosing divisions. Oh, and conveniently, geography and rivalries will also be protected with this setup. If you want to thank me for settling this raging debate, you can send money to me via PayPal.